Despite his legendary status, Carlo Ancelotti’s Bayern Munich are underperforming in 2025-26. Real stats reveal a team stuck in neutral — and it's not just bad luck.
Bayern Munich are winning — but barely. As of April 2026, they sit just two points clear of Borussia Dortmund at the top of the Bundesliga. That wouldn’t be alarming in itself, except for the manner of their performances: sluggish transitions, uncharacteristic defensive lapses, and a worrying drop in attacking output. Carlo Ancelotti, the veteran tactician brought back in 2024 to restore calm after the turbulent Tuchel era, is now being questioned for making Bayern too calm — to the point of complacency.
The team that once overwhelmed opponents with relentless pressing and verticality now controls games without dominating them. The last time Bayern lost three consecutive matches in March? 2019 under Niko Kovač — and he was sacked weeks later. Yet Ancelotti, despite similar warning signs, remains protected by his legacy. But football doesn’t reward past glory — it punishes stagnation.
The numbers don’t lie. Bayern’s goals per game in the 2025-26 Bundesliga season has dipped to 2.1, down from 2.6 the previous year. Their expected goals (xG) sits at 2.4, indicating they’re not just underperforming — they’re creating fewer high-quality chances. In contrast, Bayer Leverkusen under Xhaka average 2.7 goals and 2.8 xG.
In the Champions League, Bayern finished second in a group behind Aston Villa — a historic low for a club of their stature. Domestically, they were knocked out of the DFB-Pokal by Stuttgart in the quarter-finals. Their PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) is 11.3, one of the highest in the league, suggesting a passive pressing scheme.
Analysts suggest Ancelotti’s conservative approach is making Bayern predictable in big games.
Ancelotti has won everything — three Champions League titles, multiple league championships across four countries. He’s revered for man-management, for keeping a superstar dressing room united. Supporters point to injuries — Kim Min-Jae missed two months, and Joshua Kimmich has battled fitness issues. They argue that stability, not revolution, was needed after Tuchel’s abrasive tenure.
Plus, Bayern are still in contention for a double. But contention isn’t dominance. In modern football, where teams like Leipzig, Leverkusen, and even Stuttgart are pushing tactically, simply staying in the race isn’t enough. Ancelotti’s pragmatism may be keeping Bayern afloat — but is it helping them evolve?
We’re not delusional. The data shows a clear decline in attacking dynamism and competitive edge. Ancelotti’s experience is invaluable, but it’s becoming a crutch. Bayern aren’t regressing because of bad luck — they’re regressing because their tactical identity is fading. The club needs a visionary, not a caretaker.
Q: Is this opinion actually supported by data?
A: Yes. The decline in goals scored, lower xG, and poor Champions League group stage performance all point to underperformance. Bayern are creating fewer high-quality chances and struggling against aggressive pressing teams.
Q: What do the advanced stats say?
A: Bayern’s PPDA of 11.3 indicates weak pressing intensity. Their xG chain and shot-creating actions are down compared to last season, suggesting a breakdown in attacking build-up and creativity.
